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NAME :
Timothy Wyatt
BORN :
14 August 1946 Wrexham, N. Wales
NATIONALITY :
British
PROFESSIONAL
QUALIFICATIONS :
1965
- 1969 University of
Edinburgh, Scotland : Department of Civil
Engineering
1969 B.Sc.
(Hons.) in Civil Engineering
Member
of the British Hydrological Society and Main
Committee Member (1993-95).
Occasional
lecturer in the application of dynamic programming
techniques for optimising the planning and
operation of water resource systems : Department
of Civil Engineering, University of Newcastle
upon Tyne. top
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PROFESSIONAL
EXPERIENCE :
2002-04 Further
development of MOSPA model for simulating operation
of the River Dee system (for United Utilities
Water and the UK Environment Agency - Wales). top
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2002-04 Further
development of MOSPA models for simulating
operation of the Integrated Water Resource/Supply
system operated by United Utilities Water in
the North West of England (for United Utilities
Water and the UK Environment Agency - North
West). top
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2002 Updating
of computer program SYSIM for simulating and
optimising the operation of integrated water
resource (irrigation) and hydro-thermal power
supply systems. Development of SYSIM Run-Time
Environment System (SYSIME). (World Bank funded
study for the Ceylon Electricity Board, Sri
Lanka). top
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2001- Development
of Windows based computer program AQUARIUS,
for simulating and optimising the operation
of integrated water resource and power supply
systems. Interactive screen input of system
components, topography and data. Linear Programming
optimisation of reservoir releases, river flows,
hydro and thermal plant outputs and, optionally,
transmission line flows within each time step.
Time step can be daily, weekly or calendar
monthly, with up to 24 load dispatch blocks
per time period. Automatic database (ACCESS)
storage of simulation results. Comprehensive
facilities for graphical display of results
as time series or in 'mimic' diagram form.
Module for the optimisation of long-term system
operating policies based on stored water values
under development. top
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2001-
Testing of the computer program DECOMP to be
used for determining sub-market weekly ‘spot’ prices
within the integrated Brazilian hydro-thermal
system. Formulation of technical tests to be
performed and analysis of results obtained.
Evaluation of weekly flow generation model
PREVIVAZ. (Administrator of Services to the
Wholesale Energy Market [ASMAE], in association
with PricewaterhouseCoopers) top
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2000 Analysis
of problems encountered during October 2000
in determining sub-system water values for
the integrated Brazilian power generation system
using computer programs NEWAVE and NEWDESP.
(Administrator of Services to the Wholesale
Energy Market [ASMAE], in association with
PricewaterhouseCoopers) top
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2000 Testing
of the computer program NEWAVE used for determining
sub-market monthly ‘spot’ prices
within the integrated hydro-thermal system
of Brazil. Formulation of technical tests to
be performed and analysis of results obtained.
Evaluation of monthly synthetic flow generation
model GEVAZP. (Administrator of Services to
the Wholesale Energy Market [ASMAE], in association
with PricewaterhouseCoopers) top
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2000 Installation
of PWSC's MOSPA/MOSES computer program package
for simulating and optimising the operation
of water resource and supply systems on client
computer systems, and training personnel in
its applications and usage (UK Environment
Agency – Wales) top
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1999 Development
of Windows based computer program EPSIM for
the definition, simulation and evaluation of
alternative power supply system development
plans. Monthly time interval for all operating
and investment cost data, and component additions/retirements.
Probabilistic or deterministic Linear Programming
or Integrated Load Duration Curve (Jacoby)
methods used to calculate expected operating
costs and supply reliability for each month
of the planning period. Optional consideration
of transmission networks, up to 5 'hydrological
conditions' and WASP compatible demand data
input. Economic analysis performed for sets
of discount and fuel price escalation rates,
and shadow prices. Automatic database (ACCESS)
storage of expansion plan evaluation results,
and comprehensive facilities for graphical
display of results as time series or in 'mimic'
diagram form. Module for 'Monte Carlo' definition,
evaluation and hence optimisation of system
development. EPSIM is particularly suitable
for comparing alternative IPP proposals with
different plant capacities, lifetimes, fixed
and variable energy supply costs and minimum
load factors (‘take or pay’ constraints). top
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1999 Development
of on-line ‘help’ systems for the
MOSPA/MOSES computer programs for simulating
and optimising the operation of water resource
and supply systems (For North West Water Ltd.
and the Environment Agency – North West
Region). top
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1996-98 Restructuring
of the Brazilian Power Sector : Review of power
sector investment plans and methodology employed
in planning the expansion and operation of
integrated hydro-thermal generation systems.
Formulation of proposals for computer modelling
and optimisation requirements for future operation
of privatised national power generation system
and marginal cost determination. Formulation
of draft Grid Procedures covering long, medium
and short-term operations planning; advice
on information transfer and database requirements
(World Bank funded study, in association with
PriceWaterhouseCoopers) top
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1997-98 Sri
Lanka : Critical appraisal of Ceylon Electricity
Board’s power sector investment plans
and methodology employed in planning the expansion
and operation of integrated hydro-thermal generation
system. (Asian Development Bank funded study,
in association with Electrowatt Engineering
Services) top
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1997-98 Turkey
: Power Sector Reform Programme : Review of
power sector investment plans and methodology
employed in planning the expansion and operation
of integrated hydro-thermal generation systems.
Formulation of proposals for computer modelling
and optimisation requirements for future operation
of privatised national power generation system
and associated databases. (World Bank funded
study, in association with Coopers & Lybrand) top
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1996-97 Development
and application of MOSPA simulation model of
the integrated water resource and supply systems
of North West Water Ltd. Modelling of River
Dee regulation system (North Wales), Lake Vyrnwy,
and the interconnected Southern and Northern
Command Zone sub-systems. Optimisation of system
operating policies for different demand scenarios
[For North West Water Ltd. & the Environment
Agency - North West Region, UK] top
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1996-97 Installation
and training in the use of the MOSPA Run-time
Environment System (MOSES) on client PC's.
[For North West Water Ltd. and the Environment
Agency - North West Region, UK] top
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1994-96 Development
of MOSPA run-time environment system (MOSES)
for the interactive creation and editing of
input data files; viewing of output files,
graphical and tabular presentation of results;
creation of system schematics; database storage
and retrieval of associated information. [For
the National Rivers Authority - North West
Region] top
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1994-95 Development
of a simulation model of the Lancaster water
supply system and application of the MOSPA
package to derive optimised operating policies.
[For North West Water Ltd, England] top
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1992-94 Enhancement
of the MOSPA program suite for the optimisation
of medium-term operating policies and the production
of abstraction schedules [For North West Water
Limited, England] top
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1992-94 Simulation
and optimisation analyses associated with the
possible redeployment of Lake Vyrnwy as part
of a national water resources strategy [For
the National Rivers Authority and North West
Water Limited, England] top
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1992-93 Implementation
of the MOSPA program suite on IBM RS/6000 computer
system running under AIX (UNIX) operating system,
and development of interface to a corporate
data base [For North West Water Limited, England] top
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1992 Implementation
of the MOSPA program suite on PC compatible
computer, development of generalised water
resource system models and user training [For
the National Rivers Authority - North West
Region, England] top
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1992 Vision
2000 Information Technology Project. Appraisal
of water resources modelling requirements and
advice on future strategy. [For North West
Water Limited, England] top
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1991-93 Enhancement
of the MOSPA program suite to enable the quantitative
assessment of drought management measures,
and their incorporation in operating policies
consistent with achieving Levels of Service
as defined by OFWAT. [For North West Water
Limited, England] top
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1990-96 Provision
of computer software for managing flows in
the Sanaga River Basin, Cameroon. Optimising
the medium and short-term operation of three
reservoirs to provide regulated flows for hydropower
generation, taking into account time-of-travel
and channel routing effects. [For the Societe
Nationale D'Electricite du Cameroun - SONEL]. top
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1989-91 Economic
Operation of the Southern Command Zone system.
Derivation of operating policies to optimise
conjunctive operation of reservoir, river abstraction
and groundwater resources, existing and potential
system configurations. [For the North West
Water Authority, England] top
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1988-89 Determination
of Marginal Operating Costs for the Northern
Command Zone system; derivation of operating
policies for a range of demand and supply reliability
levels. [For the North West Water Authority,
England] top
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1986-87 Economic
Operation of the Lancashire Conjunctive Use
Scheme; optimisation of seasonal operating
policies, based on reservoir levels, to minimise
pumping and treatment costs while maintaining
prescribed reliability of supply. [For the
North West Water Authority, England] top
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1986-88 Implementation,
development and application of a computer simulation
program to model major water resource developments
in Sri Lanka used for power production and
irrigation. [GTZ funded Masterplan for Electricity
Supply, Sri Lanka] top
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1986-87 Optimal
Operation of the Kinda Multi-Purpose Project,
Burma ; derivation of seasonal operating policies
to maximise irrigation and hydropower benefits.
[For Lahmeyer International] top
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1985-86 Economic
Operation of the Lake District Water Resource
System; optimisation of seasonal operating
policies, based on reservoir levels, to minimise
pumping and treatment costs while maintaining
prescribed reliability of supply. [For the
North West Water Authority, England] top
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1985 Identification,
appraisal and selection of available computer
models for determining marginal production
costs of a hydro-thermal generation system
[for the North of Scotland Hydro-Electric Board] top
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1983-85 Development
of the MOSP computer program suite.
The
methodology combines a detailed simulation
model of the system to be analysed with a
generalised stochastic Dynamic Programming
algorithm to optimise long term operating
policies. top
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1981 – 1983 INDEPENDENT
CONSULTING ENGINEER
Power
and Water Systems
Formulation
of Modular Optimisation/Simulation Program
Suite (MOSP), a suite of computer programs
to optimise medium-term operating policies
for water resource and hydro-thermal power
generation systems with significant water
storage facilities.
Development
of a generalised simulation program (SYSIM)
for modelling the operation of hydro-thermal
power generation systems.
Preparation
of technical offers for 'Burundi Electricity
Masterplan' and 'Bangladesh Power System
Masterplan' [For Lahmeyer International]
Technical
and Economic Evaluation of the Santa Maria
II hydroelectric scheme (68 MW), Guatemala.
[For Lahmeyer International] top
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1974
- 1981 LAHMEYER INTERNATIONAL
GmbH, Consulting Engineers, Frankfurt
am Main, Federal Republic of Germany, Senior
Engineer, Division of Electrical Networks
and Energy
Planning top
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1981 Review
of mathematical models for energy planning at
the regional and national level. top
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1979-80 Estudio
del Equipamiento del Sistema Electrico Nacional,
Uruguay
Project
manager with overall technical and organisational
responsibility, the principal study activities
being :
· Electricity
demand forecasting at the national level,
sectoral, seasonal and macro-economic trends;
· Hydrological
studies to determine representative flow
sequences at existing and potential hydropower
sites, and estimation of design droughts,
floods and sediment.
· Development
of computer program to model the Uruguayan
hydro-thermal generation system and optimal
forms of operation, including hydraulic interaction,
load dispatch optimisation, system operating
policies, supply reliability in terms of
penalty functions and consumer restrictions,
pumped storage plants, bi-national operation
of 'run-of-river' plant and the import and
export of electrical energy.
· Establishment
of a thermal power plant catalogue including
gas turbine, combined cycle, conventional
steam (oil and coal) and nuclear plant, including
technical and cost parameters. Identification,
preliminary design and cost estimation of
potential hydropower developments, including
low head (bulb turbine) and pumped storage
schemes.
· Establishment,
evaluation and comparison of alternative
equipment plans featuring thermal and hydroelectric
plants and interconnection with neighbouring
countries. Economic appraisal and sensitivity
analysis with respect to discount rates,
demand forecasts, fuel prices, penalty costs
for shortfalls in supply and unit prices
for the import and export of electrical energy.
· Recommendations
regarding optimum equipment schedules, alternative
fuels, supply reliability criteria and the
exploitation of non-conventional energy resources. top
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1976-79 Plan
Maestro de Electrificacion, Peru
Senior
hydrologist and water resource engineer
· Design
and establishment of hydrological data bank
at the national level on mini-computer system.
Adjustment and extension of historic streamflow
and rainfall records; statistical studies
of relationships between physical and hydro-meteorological
parameters.
· Estimation
of the national hydroelectric potential,
and creation of a river system and morphological
data bank.
· Evaluation
of existing and potential hydropower projects. top
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1976 Plan
Maestro para el Desarrollo del Sistema Electrico
de Nicaragua. Hydrological and water resource
systems analysis
· Pre-feasibility
Studies for the Xalala, Serchil, Chulac and
El Carmen Hydropower Projects, Guatemala. top
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1974-76 Plan
Maestro de Electrificacion Nacional, Guatemala
Hydrologist
and systems analyst
· Evaluation
of theoretical and technical hydropower potential
of the country. Design and establishment
of computer based hydrological data bank.
Development and application of computer programs
for hydrological analyses, including extension
of historic streamflow sequences, estimation
of design floods and analysis of low flow
sequences. Development of methodology for
the rapid estimation of energy production
associated with hydroelectric projects. Derivation
of ranking indices for comparing hydro and
thermal power projects. top
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1974 THE
CONFEDERATION OF BRITISH INDUSTRY (CBI)
London,
England : Technical Adviser, Fuel and Energy
· Formulation
and analysis of energy policy at national,
EEC and international level, with emphasis
on industrial use and North Sea oil production. top
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1969
- 1973 THE
WATER RESEARCH ASSOCIATION
Medmenham,
Bucks. England. [now the Water Research Centre]
Senior
Scientific Officer, Economics Group
· Development
of computer programs for the simulation and
optimisation of water resource systems using
mathematical programming and operations research
techniques. top
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LANGUAGES :
English
: mother tongue
Spanish : good working knowledge
French : basic knowledge
Portuguese : reading ability top
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OVERSEAS
PROFESSIONAL VISITS AND RESIDENCE :
Brazil,
Cameroon, Cyprus, Greece, Guatemala (1974-76),
Italy, Nicaragua, Peru (1976-79), Philippines,
Sri Lanka, Turkey, Uruguay (1979-80),
USA, Venezuela. top
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COMPUTER
EXPERIENCE :
Programming
in FORTRAN and MS Visual Basic. IBM and
CDC mainframes; Hewlett Packard, Data
General and CADMUS (Unix) mini-computer
systems; IBM PC compatibles, IBM RS/6000
AIX (UNIX). Spreadsheet, Graphics, Word
Processing and Database (MS OFFICE, DBASE,
Visual Objects, VB/ACCESS) Packages. top
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PAPERS
AND PUBLICATIONS :
"Some
Conjunctive Desalination Studies in
the UK". Water Resources Bulletin,
September 1971. Co-author.
"Streamflow
Regulation by Artificial Recharge Fed
from Upstream Surface Storage : Derivation
of Control Rules". IASH Symposium,
Warsaw, Poland, 1971. Principal author.
"An
Integrated Model for Water Systems".
Symposium on Computers in Water Systems,
Reading, England, 1973
"Pumping
Policies in Water Supply". IFAC
Symposium, 1973. Co-author.
"Planning
and Operational Studies in the Integrated
Use of Desalination : Case Studies
for Cyprus and Jersey". Published
in 'Desalination', 1974. Co-author.
"Primera
Estimacion de la Energia y Potencia
de Proyectos Hidro-electricos Individuales
e Interconectados". Seminario
Interamericano de Hidroelectricidad,
Venezuela, 1977.
"Bancos
de Datos - Su Rol en Estudios Tipo
Plan Maestro". Simposio Planes
Maestros de Electrificacion, Lima,
Peru, 1978.
"Assessing
Hydropower Potential in Developing
Countries". IWRA Third World Congress,
Mexico City, 1979 and published in
'Water International', September 1979.
Principal author.
"Reservoir
Storage Use for Hydropower Production
Considering Costs of Back-up Capacity
and Supply Restrictions". Symposium
on Surface Water Impoundments, Minneapolis,
USA, 1980. Principal author.
"Electricity
Generation Planning for Uruguay".
'Water Power & Dam Construction',
June 1986.
"Use
of a Dynamic Programming Technique
for Optimising Operation of a Regional
Water Resource System". 'AQUA
- The Journal of the International
Water Supply Association', No. 5, 1987.
Co-author.
"Medium-Term
Operating Policies for Hydro-Thermal
Systems". 'Modern Power Systems',
January 1988. Principal author.
"System
Simulation and Optimisation - Useless,
Useful or Essential ?" Presented
at the Sixth IWRA World Water Congress
on Water Resources Ottawa, Canada,
May-June 1988. Principal author.
"Operational
Aspects and Generation Expansion Planning
of Hydro-Thermal Systems". Presented
at the Third Regional GTZ Symposium
on Long-Term Power System Planning,
Colombo, Sri Lanka, 19-24 September
1988.
"Derivation
and Application of Medium-Term Operating
Policies for the Northern Command Zone
System of North West Water (UK)".
Presented at the IAHS Baltimore Symposium,
May 1989. Co-author.
"The
Development and Use of Medium-Term
Policies for Operation of a Major Regional
Water Resource System". Presented
at the Second BHS National Hydrology
Symposium, Sheffield, 4-6 September
1989. Co-author.
"Computer
Software for Optimising the Releases
from Multiple Reservoirs Operated for
Flow Regulation". Presented at
the British Dam Society Conference
on Water Resources and Reservoir Engineering,
Stirling, 24-27 June 1992. Principal
author.
"Drought
Management Measures and their Incorporation
within Water Resource System Operating
Policies". Presented at the Fourth
BHS National Hydrology Symposium, Cardiff,
13-16 September 1993. Principal author.
"An
Integrated System for the Modelling
and Management of Water Supply Systems".
Proceedings of the Second European
Conference on Advances in Water Resources
Technology and Management. Tsakiris & Santos
(eds) 1994 Balkema. Principal author.
"Evaluating
the Impact of Drought Management Measures
within Complex Water Resource Systems".
Proceedings of the Second European
Conference on Advances in Water Resources
Technology and Management. Tsakiris & Santos
(eds) 1994 Balkema. Principal author.
"Modelling
the Possible Re-Deployment of Lake
Vyrnwy". Analytical Techniques
for the Development and Operations
Planning of Water Resource and Supply
Systems. Proceedings of BHS National
Meeting, November 1994 and published
as BHS Occasional Paper No. 4. Principal
author.
"An
Integrated Approach to Modelling Water
Resource and Supply Systems".
Analytical Techniques for the Development
and Operations Planning of Water Resource
and Supply Systems. Proceedings of
BHS National Meeting, November 1994
and published as BHS Occasional Paper
No. 4. Principal author.
"An
Integrated Simulation and Dynamic Programming
Approach for Evaluating the Performance
of Complex Water Resource Systems and
Optimising Operating Policies : Methodology
and Applications"
Paper
presented at IAHR International Workshop
on "Drinking Water Systems Characterised
by Different Sources : Design, Management
and Monitoring of Quality of Supplied
Waters". Turin, Italy, September
1996. Author. top
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08.09.2004
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Traditionally,
power sectors across the Asia region were monopolies which
were generally state-owned. During the last decade this
situation has changed significantly, and power sectors
are being restructured and reformed in order to create
competition, attract private investment, and improve operational
efficiency. Sri Lanka is no exception, where they have
identified a need to develop a policy package in keeping
with the current trends.
Cost
of electricity is a key element in attracting foreign investment
into the country for its economic development. Further,
electricity has a direct bearing on the competitiveness
of local industry in international markets. Therefore,
the power prices should be comparable and have a competitive
edge in relation to prices elsewhere in the region including
South Asia and South East Asia.
The
Ceylon Electricity Board use SYSIM from PWSC for simulating
and optimising operation of the integrated Sri Lankan hydro-thermal
power generation and irrigation supply system to help achieve
this goal.
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With
a power generation installed capacity of some 79 GW, larger
than the UK, Brazil is one of the largest electricity markets
in the world. It is by far the largest in South America,
with the Brazilian total primary energy consumption being
twice as large as the aggregated figures for Argentina,
Bolivia, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. There are approximately
50 million customers and total consumption has increased
from 70 to 300 TWh in the last 20 years. Currently, some
95% of the Brazilian households have access to electricity.
During
2001 Brazil experienced a major electricity supply
crisis triggered by a severe drought. The hydroelectric
power plants that had generated 90% of Brazil’s
electricity supply were left with dry reservoirs. However,
the Government’s rationing programme successfully
minimised the social and economic impact of the crisis.
Since then, rainy seasons have been plentiful and the
reservoirs returned to comfortable levels.
The
new Government inaugurated in January 2003 is proceeding
with the re-evaluation of the power sector policies
initiated by the last administration after the 2001
crisis. The target is to solve regulatory bottlenecks,
and overcome investment problems in the sector. As
part of all this, PWSC's has been working in association
with PriceWaterhouseCoopers to develop simulation and
optimisation models of the countries combined power & water
systems to support development of future policy and
practice.
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River
Dee, Wales
The
River Dee is a 70 mile (110 km) long river, which rises
in the hills above Llanuwchilyn in Merioneth (Gwynedd)
Wales, then passes through Bala Lake, over the man-made
Horseshoe Falls and through Llangollen. East of Llangollen,
Thomas Telford's Pontcysyllte Aqueduct, of 1805, carries
the Shropshire Union Canal 120 feet overhead. At Farndon
the river crosses into England and then passes through
Chester. Below Chester, the river flows along an artificial
channel, excavated when Sealand and Shotton were reclaimed
from the estuary. This 'canalised' section runs in a
straight line for five miles and passes beneath two road
bridges at Queensferry. The first is a modern fixed cable-stayed
bridge, the second, the Queen Victoria Jubilee Bridge,
is of the rolling bascule type. A mile further on is
the Hawarden railway bridge, originally constructed as
a swing bridge but now never opened, carries the Chester
- Wrexham line over the river. The name derives from
the Celtic name for the river (Afon Dyfrdwy).
United
Utilities and the Environment Agency use MOSPA from PWSC
for simulating operation of the River Dee system.
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